For many of us, the long wait through the warm months of spring and summer for the return of football season are almost unbearable. Within the months upon months of meaningless Sundays between February and September, the imagination of an NFL fan begins to run wild with theories about the potential success (or failure) of their favorite teams.
The anticipation and curiosity that comes with our speculations about which teams will be bad and which will be good may sometimes lead to a general attitude of overreaction toward early team records. For example, if a team currently finds itself starting out the 2013 season with a 0-2 record, that doesn’t by any means condemn it to an unsuccessful year, does it? Any opinion of a team based solely on their wins and losses in the first two weeks must just be an imaginative hysteria induced by long-term NFL withdrawals, right?
Actually, wrong.
The first two games of an NFL team’s season mean a lot more than people realize, and our theoretical team that has started the season 0-2? There are actually eight of them, and they’re in worse shape than you think.
Teams that are heading into week 3 winless are fighting a losing battle with statistics. Since the introduction of the 12-team playoff in 1990, teams that start their season with a 0-2 record only make the playoffs about 12 percent of the time. The number is actually worse than that in recent years; not a single team since the 2008 season has made it to the postseason after starting out with two losses.
And if making the playoffs wasn’t already hard enough, winning is another issue altogether. Only three 0-2 teams in the twenty-three years since the playoff size was increased have gone on to win the Super Bowl that year. And with things being so bad for these winless week three teams, then it’s obvious that the statistics favor the lucky eight organizations that are currently undefeated. Since 1990, about two-thirds of all teams beginning the season 2-0 have made the playoffs.
So, contrary to belief, a team’s first two games definitely do matter. But not all teams with the same record are the same. With that being said, let’s look at one time from each group (the undefeated and the “defeated”) that is the least deserving of its position, as well as the statistics that come with that position.
The first of these teams is the New England Patriots, who are in my opinion the “worst of the best” – an undefeated team that has had been hardly praiseworthy during its first two wins.
The Patriots are undefeated heading into week 3, but not by any more than five points total. The Pats defeated the Bills (6-10 last season) 23-21 in week 1, despite committing three turnovers, one of which (a fumble by running back Steven Ridley) was returned for a 70 -yard touchdown. The game also made for two more offensive players to add to the team’s abysmal injury list. The injuries to slot receiver Danny Amendola and change-of-pace-back Shane Vereen only contribute more to the much-felt absences of superstar tight ends Rob Gronkowkski (also injury) and Aaron Hernandez (…ugh…other stuff).
The next week, New England was barely able to hold off the New York Jets (also a 6-10 team last year), winning the game 13-10 after scoring zero points in the second half. The Patriots are not playing well at all, and the injuries can’t be the only excuse. Tom Brady, one of the NFL’s most elite quarterbacks, currently places 21st in total passing yards with the 22nd best QBR in the league. The offense as a whole the fastest in the NFL when viewed by plays per game is currently 22nd in yards per game and 25th in points per game.
After two weeks of wins, the injury-stricken Patriots have barely beaten two of the league’s weaker teams while posting up stats that in no way justify their membership in the statistically elite group of the NFL’s eight undefeated teams.
Now for the “best of the worst:” if it is at all possible for a team to not deserve its 0-2 record, that team is the Carolina Panthers.
The Panthers have had an unfortunate past few seasons, and it seemed as if maybe this year there might be some hope. 2012 defensive rookie of the year Luke Kuechly is currently second in the NFL in tackles, racking up 23 in only two weeks, and under new offensive coordinator Mike Shula, Cam Newton has begun to justify himself as a passing-oriented quarterback rather than only relying on his running ability to win games. Unfortunately for Carolina fans, the Panthers have the most difficult schedule in the NFL this year; their 2013 opponents averaged a .543 win percentage last season.
In an immediate testament to their tough schedule, Carolina played their first game against the Seattle Seahawks, who have being debated as the possible best team in the entire NFL. After holding Russell Wilson and the Seattle offense to just 3 points in the first half, the Panthers lost the game on a 4th quarter comeback by the Seahawks. In week 2, the Panthers led the Buffalo Bills 7-3 at the half, only to lose the game by 1 point in the last 2 seconds. The much-improved Panthers have lost two games in the fourth quarter after playing good defense and leading at the half, and unfortunately their schedule does not get any friendlier as the season goes on.
