With his second U.S. Open win against Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal is shaping up to be the next player to keep an eye on. But is he the next great? Fit to take over the crown from Roger Federer? Many would say yes. Some would say that he already has.
The rivalry is legendary, considered the greatest in tennis history. They’re the only pair to finish six consecutive years as the top two ranked players on the ATP Tour. They hold the longest consecutive reign as the top two players on the world rankings. Nadal has won 21 out of their 31 encounters on a variety of courts. Their 2008 Wimbledon Final, where Nadal won after 4 hours and 48 minutes of play, is lauded as one of the greatest matches by analysts.
While Federer has 17 Grand Slams under his belt, Nadal has just 12. But you must take into account that Rafael also holds four Davis Cups, has won 26 Masters series tournaments, has a win-loss record of 60-3 in the Opens, and even after having to back out early last year due to tendinitis, has an Olympic gold medal.
So why is Federer still considered the better player? Statistics. Pure and simple math.
Nadal has never been in the number one spot on rankings. And why is that? The ATP rankings calculate how many points a player earns over a 12-month period – not a calendar year but over a rolling period. This system does not bring into account the quality of the games played or the caliber of opponents in comparison to the person being ranked. As well, for the top 30 players the results of the Grand Slams and the ATP Tour Masters must be counted into this calculation. Federer has the greater number of Grand Slam wins while Nadal is too busy worrying about Olympic medals. It’s an unfair system but that’s how it goes.
But outside of ranking systems, what makes Rafael the better player? He keeps going, he works harder, and he stretches for goals. He’s quoted as having, “prodigious skill backed with tremendous tenacity”. An eight-month knee injury, one that could have stopped his entire career, did nothing to stop his progress. “You have to learn the lesson and keep on going, keep on fighting, keep on improving,” Nadal said.
Currently, Federer is slated to be the best player in tennis and he is one of the greats for sure. He defined the game in a new way. But number one? Not for much longer. Analysts and coaches, the community of tennis, is saying that Nadal will be the number one player by the end of the year. He has the skills and he has the drive and he’s back in the game. This U.S. Open win is just the first in a long line.